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As
we head into 2013, the main concern on most people's minds is the fragile
economy. By most indications, the economy is on the right track and is
steadily improving. But there is still a long way to go and the economy is
still susceptible to national and global crises (so the upcoming Debt Limit
negotiations and the global economy are still important topics to watch).
With that in mind, here are three predictions about what to expect in 2013:
1. Housing--The housing market has begun to show some signs of
stabilizing and even improving. On the one hand, the number of homes at risk
for foreclosure has been shrinking. In addition, home prices have been
starting to rise--which is good news for homeowners looking to sell and for
homeowners who are worried about their homes being "underwater" (or
worth less than they owe on them). In fact, a recent report indicated that
median home prices increased in 25 states, which pulled 1.6 million
homeowners out of negative equity. And Goldman Sachs has reported that the fundamentals
are pointing towards larger gains for housing prices in the next couple of
years.
Finally, new residential construction is improving and it has a long way to
go before it runs out of room to grow. Based on recent trends in building
permits and housing starts, it is possible that new construction activity
could increase as much as 20% in the coming year. That's good news for the
housing industry, as well as all of the jobs related to it. The bottom line
is that the housing market looks poised for meaningful growth in 2013.
2. Jobs and Unemployment--Overall, the labor market in 2013 should
look much like it did in 2012. That said, employment is on the right track
with a number of positive factors to look forward to, including improvements
in residential construction, automobile manufacturing, state and local
government hiring, and the energy sector. In addition, the improving credit
conditions mean that small business may be better positioned to grow and
increase their hiring.
3. Inflation--The archenemy of home loan rates is inflation. That's
because inflation reduces the value of fixed investments, such as Bonds. And,
since home loan rates are tied to Mortgage Bonds, any bad news for Bonds is
also bad news for home loan rates. The good news is that inflation is
starting out the year tame. One news story that is worth watching is the
Fed's goal of injecting trillions of dollars into the economy. While this can
help improve the economy, it may result in increased inflation. But based on
a number of reports and factors, it is likely that any rise in inflation will
only be slight, meaning that it shouldn't be much of a concern in
2013--especially when you consider more important concerns like employment
and wage growth.
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