Housing starts to break free and economic news

In This Issue

Last Week in Review: Several key housing reports were released. Plus the Fed met and there was more drama in Europe. Forecast for the Week: A holiday-shortened week is ahead, but look for important news on consumer confidence, the economy, housing, inflation, and more. View: Learn how to grow your business and get the most out of your LinkedIn profile with these tips below.

Last Week in Review

"I'm on my way...just set me free...home sweet home." The lyrics from Mötley Crüe's Home Sweet Home sound a lot like something the housing industry might have sang last week, after more good housing news was reported. Housing Starts rose slightly in February, coming in above expectations and up 28 percent since this time last year. Both Single-Family Housing Starts and Building Permits (a sign of future construction) also increased, reaching their highest levels since June 2008. In addition, Existing Home Sales rose by 0.8 percent in February from January to an annual rate of 4.98 million units. They are up 10.2 percent from the February 2012 rate of 4.52 million units. But the good news didn't stop there. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the 4-week moving average of jobless claims (which evens out seasonal abnormalities) are hovering near five-year lows. While the labor sector has been improving, it's important to note that with the Unemployment Rate at 7.5 percent and the Labor Force Participation Rate dropping, further improvement is still needed in this sector. There was expected news from the Fed last week, as they announced they will continue their Bond purchase program (known as Quantitative Easing). And there was dramatic news out of Europe, as Cyprus is the latest country in need of a bailout. Protests and a run on banks occurred there. What does all of this mean for home loan rates? Good housing and other economic news will likely cause investors to continue to move money out of Bonds and into riskier assets like Stocks, to try to take advantage of gains. But with the Fed still purchasing $85 billion in Bonds every month and the continued drama in Europe, the safe haven trade into our Bond market should also continue. Overall, this should help keep Mortgage Bonds--and therefore home loan rates, which are tied to Mortgage Bonds--near record best levels. The bottom line is that now is a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance, as home loan rates remain near historic lows. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

Forecast for the Week

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Mar 22, 2013)

The Bond market will close early on Thursday and both the Stock and Bond markets will be closed on Friday for the Good Friday holiday. But there will be plenty of important news before then. We'll get a sense of how the consumer is feeling with Tuesday's Consumer Confidence Report and Friday's Consumer Sentiment Index, both for March. We'll also get a sense of how the economy is doing with Tuesday's Durable Goods Orders, which tracks orders on big ticket items used for an extended period of time, and Thursday's 2012 Q4 Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate). A triple dose of housing news is ahead with Tuesday's New Home Sales and Case-Shiller Home Price Index, followed by Pending Home Sales on Wednesday. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be reported on Thursday along with the manufacturing sector's Chicago PMI Report. Ending the week, Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed's favorite measure of inflation, Personal Income and Personal Spending will be reported on Friday. Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on. When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving -- and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse. To go one step further -- a red "candle" means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green "candle" means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning. As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates remain near record best levels. I will continue to watch this closely.

The Mortgage Market Guide View...

Social Media Spotlight Networking on LinkedIn Made Easy Depending on how you use it, social media can be a fantastic source of new business, a bit of amusement around lunchtime, or a tremendous waste of time. LinkedIn is one of those social networks most people don't think of immediately as a social network, but when you're looking to grow your business contacts--and actually get some new business along the way--look no further than LinkedIn. Before we reveal the most effective way to use it, here are a few interesting statistics and a link to an enlightening infographic on LinkedIn: 37.6 percent of users say LinkedIn has helped them build new relationships with potential customers... 44.5 percent of users say LinkedIn has helped them increase face-to-face networking effectiveness... 49.7 percent of users say LinkedIn has built new networking relationships with individuals who may influence potential customers... So, how can you use LinkedIn to get more business? Make sure your profile is 100% complete. Over 50% of profiles are incomplete, but a complete profile is the best way to sell "you" without selling at all. Listing your accomplishments, building your recommendations, listing your favorite business books, connecting your blog, attaching PowerPoint presentations, and being thorough (and interesting) with your background information all combine to make potential business connections feel like they know you a little bit already. Connect with people you don't already know. LinkedIn recommends you only connect with people you already know, but advice around the web advises connecting with anyone who asks and asking those you want to know--but this advice comes with one very important caveat: always follow up with your new connections. Ask about their business and talk about the kinds of business you're both looking for. Do you know anyone they need to know or vice-versa? If it appears there might be a foundation to build on, set up a phone call or meet over coffee to discuss things further. Don't expect it to do all the work for you. Just having a half-completed profile will not get you any new business. But let's face it: making contacts online is easier than going door-to-door looking for new business. LinkedIn is a powerful social network and networking tool for professionals and getting new business is not nearly as complicated as it first appears. Make sure to pass these tips along to your clients and colleagues--and happy networking! Economic Calendar for the Week of March 25 - March 29 Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact Tue. March 26 08:30 Durable Goods Orders Feb NA   -5.2% Moderate Tue. March 26 09:00 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Jan NA   6.8% Moderate Tue. March 26 10:00 Consumer Confidence Mar NA   69.0 Moderate Tue. March 26 10:00 New Home Sales Feb 426K   437K Moderate Wed. March 27 10:00 Pending Home Sales Feb NA   4.5% Moderate Thu. March 28 09:45 Chicago PMI Mar NA   56.8 Moderate Thu. March 28 08:30 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q4 NA   0.1% Moderate Thu. March 28 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 3/23 NA   NA Moderate Fri. March 29 08:30 Personal Income Feb NA   -3.6% Moderate Fri. March 29 08:30 Personal Spending Feb NA   0.2% Moderate Fri. March 29 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE YOY NA   0.1% HIGH Fri. March 29 10:00 Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM) Mar NA   NA Moderate

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