Views You Can Use - December Edition

IN THIS ISSUE...

	"Should old acquaintance be forgot, and never brought to mind?" - As we head into the final month of 2011, one thing that we can't forget and that keeps coming to mind is the strength of the economy. The articles below shed some light on the economy as a whole to offer a global perspective on where we're at…and what to look for in the near future: A Productive Year? – Where is the US economy as we finish 2011? The article below puts the answer into perspective. Let's Make a Deal – Discover last-minute deals that make the season bright! Q&A: Lessons from Europe? – Find out what we can learn from Europe…and how it impacts home loan rates. Best wishes to you and yours this holiday season. If you have any questions or would like to discuss your unique situation, call or email today. And please forward this newsletter to friends, family members and coworkers who may find the information helpful.

A Productive Year for the Economy?

	One of the best ways to look at a snapshot of the overall US economy is to look at Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which measures the total production and consumption of goods and services in the US to shed light on the economy's behavior. Recently, we saw the second of three looks at the US's Third Quarter GDP. The bad news was that the second reading was actually lowered to 2%, compared to the first reading of 2.5%. While that may not sound like much of a difference, it's a sizeable drop in GDP. And when we factor that drop into the year-over-year reading, GDP is an anemic 1.5%. The good news is that we're not in a recession and the Third Quarter reading is still up from the First Quarter. But this very weak growth reading is not nearly enough to put a dent in the Unemployment Rate. Additionally, any external shock to the economy - for example, a deepening Euro crisis - could apply enough pressure to hit the US economy rather hard. This is very much like a person whose immune system is weak, which makes them extra susceptible to catching an illness that they might normally be able to fight off. That said, the US economy is still much healthier than a lot of European countries, which are more like the walking dead…meandering slowly and living on borrowed time as ever growing debt literally buries them. Right now, Germany holds all the cards - and they want to wait and see if the troubled Euro member countries can truly invoke austerity and grow their way out of deficit. The problem is that the market may not be that patient. Yields in Italy, Spain and Portugal have risen sharply in recent weeks, and the only thing keeping them from going higher still is that the European Central Bank has been buying Bonds from those countries. So the clock is ticking in Europe. In the very near future either the European Central Bank will have to print a ton of money to continue buying those Bonds…or some of these southern European countries may leave the Euro. As this story plays out, the US Dollar and US Bonds - and home loan rates overall - continue to benefit from a safe haven trade.

Let’s Make a Deal: How to Save on Last-Minute Holiday Shopping

	Black Friday has come and gone. But, if you're like most people, you probably still have a little holiday shopping left to do. Whether you're looking for small items like toys and clothing, big-ticket items like electronics or maybe a car, or even a plane ticket home to see the family, the following tips can help you save on your last-minute holiday purchases. Toys, Electronics, Jewelry, and Even Groceries: Believe it or not, you can get the best deals on a wide variety of gift ideas without ever leaving your house. So whether you're looking for toddler toys, a big screen TV, a diamond necklace or even the groceries you need for that holiday feast, you should start by shopping online. For example, websites like PriceGrabber.com allow you to compare prices at popular stores. You can also save by printing coupons on the items you want by visiting websites such as Coupons.com and CouponMom.com. Finally, consider visiting sites like RetailMeNot.com that allow people to share coupons for thousands of popular stores and items. Clothing: If you still need to buy a gift for a teenager, then the clothing store may be a good place to start. This time of year, you'll find tons of holiday specials that make last-minute shopping easy. But you'll want to plan out and time your trip to the mall. That's because when the weekend rolls around, just about every dressing room is filled...and the best deals have been picked over already. Why? It's simple. With the large number of special promotions to be marked and shelves to be stocked, most clothing stores get started early. And savvy shoppers, like you, can get the best deals and the best selection by Thursday evenings. As an added bonus, the stores, dressing rooms, and checkout lines aren't nearly as crowded - so you save on stress, too! Cars: Perhaps you're in the market for a big-ticket item this holiday season. Lots of automakers and dealers offer special financing or holiday specials to help increase sales near the end of the year. When it comes to buying a car, you may already know that your best chance to negotiate a better price is at the end of a month when car dealers need to make their monthly quotas. But did you know you can drive home a great deal early in the week, especially during the morning? At that time, the dealerships aren't overflowing with shoppers like they are on the weekend, so you'll get more personalized attention. Plus, salespeople are more likely to negotiate when they don't have three or four other buyers waiting in the wings to pay full price. Airplane Tickets: Still looking for a plane ticket to see friends and family members during the holiday season? In addition to looking for cheap airfare on sites like Priceline.com, Orbitz.com, and HotWire.com, remember to shop at the right times. For example, your best chance for saving is Wednesday morning. That's because airlines introduce their savings over the weekend and during the first few days of the week, subtle price wars begin. By early Wednesday, the savings have usually hit their peak...and there are still plenty of seats left for you to capitalize on. And remember, the more flexible you can be on your travel dates, the better chance you have of grabbing a good deal. The moral of the story is that with a little planning, you can still save big on large and small items on your holiday shopping list.

Q&A: Lessons from Europe?

	QUESTION:What can we learn from Europe's financial crisis? ANSWER: The takeaway from Europe is just how quickly things can - and probably will - change. Unless the US government does something meaningful to address our own debt problems, we will see a price adjustment in the Bond market sometime in the future. Lately, US Bonds have been benefiting from the problems in Europe…and since home loan rates are tied to Bonds, home loan rates have also benefited. But this won't last forever. Somewhere down the road, something's gotta give, which means the near historically low home loan rates may be living on borrowed time. If you have any questions about how the US economy or crisis in Europe impacts the home loan rate you can get, please call or email today. It will only take a few moments to discuss what's going on based on your unique goals and financial situation.

	The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, real estate and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is without errors. As your Trusted Advisor, I always want to make sure you are clear on all details of the home financing process. If you or someone you know are interested in purchasing or refinancing a home, give me a call today! In the unlikely event that you no longer wish to receive these valuable market updates, please USE THIS LINK or email: jeffporter.svm@gmail.com If you prefer to send your removal request by mail the address is: Jeff Porter Sun Valley Mortgage Services, LLC 11576 South State St. Unit 301 Draper, UT 84020 Mortgage Success Source, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated. Mortgage Success Source, LLC does not grant to the recipient or distributor a license to any content, features or materials in this email. You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.

Here's How to Start the Holiday Season

Here's How to Start the Holiday Season

This time of year is all about reflection. Taking the time to consider the blessings in our lives - from family and friends to education and opportunity. But it's also a time to renew our spirits and souls, especially as we head into the holiday season and a new year. To help you make the upcoming holiday season feel a little less hectic and more reflective, consider dedicating specific times of the day or week to family activities that focus on the blessings of the season.

The website Kaboose.com can help. It offers a wide variety of word searches, crossword puzzles, mazes, coloring pages and more that you can download and print for free. Better still, those activities are available in different levels of toughness and subjects, so you can find the right activity for your family. Use the links below to start finding holiday activities that help you celebrate the meanings behind the holidays:

• Chanukah - Download and Print Activities
• Christmas - Download and Print Activities
• Kwanzaa - Download and Print Activities
• New Year's - Download and Print Coloring Pages

Here's to wishing you and yours the very best as we head into the beautiful holiday season. If you have any questions or if there's anything I can do for you or someone you know, please just call or email. I'm always happy to help in any way I can.

Weekly Update - Black Friday Tips

In This Issue

Last Week in Review: There was more negative news out of Europe and some positive economic news here in the US. But how did home loan rates fare? Forecast for the Week: There will be plenty of news to gobble up before the Thanksgiving holiday, with reports on the housing market, the state of the economy, inflation, consumer sentiment, and more. View: Planning to do some shopping on Black Friday? Be sure to check out  these tips first.

Last Week in Review

They say it takes two to tango.... And Stocks and Bonds continue to battle for  investing dollars and trade in seesaw fashion. What's causing this dance in the markets? Read on for details.  First, there was more pessimistic news out of Europe last week, as German leader Angela Merkel said that Europe is going through its toughest times since World War II, plagued by political unrest and a severe debt crisis. Reports showed there was a slowing in manufacturing to the point where  recession fears have now gripped Europe.  Here lies another enormous problem for Europe: One way--and probably the biggest way--to lower government deficits, is to grow your way out and elevate Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, many of the Southern Europe economies are on the brink of recession, which will make lowering the deficit through economic  growth impossible.  So what does all of this mean for home loan rates here in the United States?  The problems in Europe should continue to support the US Dollar and US Bonds (including Mortgage Bonds, on which home loan rates are based) to some degree,  as investors will view our Bonds as a safe haven for their money. Yet, if we continue to see better-than-expected economic data here like we did last week,  this will offset the continued uncertainty surrounding the European crisis. And this  is part of the reason that the Bond markets and home loan rates saw limited gains last week.  Some of the good news last week included tamer than expected wholesale inflation in the form of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and improved New York Manufacturing. Also, as you can see from the chart, the year-over-year headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) was down from the previous reading, which is good news for people concerned about inflation. However, the closely watched Core CPI rose by 0.1%,  and though this was inline with estimates, it did push the year-over-year rate to 2.1% from 2%...a touch above the Fed's comfort zone.  The bottom line is that home loan rates are still near historic lows, which  means now remains a great time to purchase or refinance a home. Let me  know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

Forecast for the Week

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Nov 18, 2011) This Thursday, all capital markets will be closed in observance of Thanksgiving, and Friday will be a shortened session. But we'll still see a cornucopia of economic indicators reported in just three days: Existing Home Sales will be released on Monday. The report comes after last week's positive reports on Housing Starts and Building Permits, which signaled a glimmer of hope to the battered housing sector. The second read on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the 3rd Quarter will be delivered on Tuesday. The initial reading showed a somewhat healthy 2.5% increase. Also, look for the Durable Goods Report on Wednesday, which gives us a read on big-ticket items and a sense of how the economy is doing. The Consumer Sentiment Index will be released on Wednesday just in time for traders to square up positions ahead of the long holiday weekend. Also released on Wednesday will be the Fed's favorite gauge on inflation, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure, as well as Personal Incomes and Spending. Finally, this week Initial Jobless Claims will be delivered on Wednesday rather than Thursday due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Claims have been below 400,000 for the previous three weeks, signaling that there may be a light at the end of the tunnel in the Labor markets. In addition to those reports, the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes from November 2nd could have some surprises when released at 2 pm ET on Tuesday. Last week, the New York Fed leader William Dudley said that it would make sense for the Fed to begin purchasing Mortgage Backed Securities. The minutes could reveal if the members discussed the topic. Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. As you can see in the chart below, the problems in Europe tempered the impact that strong economic news in the US had on Bonds and home loan rates. This dynamic will be something to watch closely in the weeks ahead.

The Mortgage Market Guide View...

Black Friday Do's and Don'ts These tips will help you get the best deals as you do your holiday shopping -- even if you don't plan on braving the stores the day after Thanksgiving. By Cameron Huddleston, Kiplinger.com Black Friday - the day after Thanksgiving that traditionally signals the beginning of the holiday shopping season because stores offer deep discounts that draw large, deal-hungry crowds - is just a couple of days away. Are you ready? If you're a Black Friday pro who lines up outside stores every year before the crack of dawn to nab bargains, you're probably already planning your strategy - and we can help. If you savor your sleep and sanity, you're probably not even thinking about stepping in a store November 25. But keep in mind that you don't have to brave the crowds to take advantage of Black Friday sales. These Black Friday do's and don'ts will help you score the best deals - whether you want to shop from home in your pajamas or venture out to the stores (perhaps in something other than PJs). DON'T rely solely on leaked ads to plan your Black Friday strategy. Plenty of Web sites specialize in publishing Black Friday ads before they appear on retailers' Web sites or in newspapers. You can use these leaked ads as a starting point for planning your purchases, but realize that you're reading gossip, says Dan de Grandpre, CEO of dealnews.com, one of our favorite deal sites. Inevitably, some of the information in leaked ads is wrong, he says. Most legitimate ads aren't published until the Sunday before Black Friday. DO expect some Black Friday sales to start on Thursday. Many retailers will start offering discounts online on Thanksgiving day. And some, such as Amazon, will offer Black Friday deals several days before November 25 -- so hot items may sell out before the big shopping day after Thanksgiving. DON'T assume the best deals are in the stores. It's a tradition for a lot of people to get up at the crack of dawn and camp out in front of stores to scoop up deals. But de Grandpre says a lot of doorbusters (those deeply discounted items retailers use to get consumers in the door early Friday) will be available online, too -- especially on big-ticket products. And if an Apple product is on your gift list, you'll probably find it for less online (at Amazon.com, MacMall.com or McConnection.com) than at an Apple store -- and you may escape sales tax on your purchase. DO brave the crowds if you're trying to snag an extremely limited item . You have a better chance of getting the deal if you go to the store - and are first in line. Keep in mind, though, that items that are marked down dramatically are cheap items to begin with - not top-selling, name-brand products, de Grandpre says. DON'T do all your holiday shopping on Black Friday. Consider the Friday after Thanksgiving as one of several days to find deals. The best deals on apparel usually appear on Cyber Monday (November 28 this year), when retailers discount items online. Toys will be cheaper the first two weeks of December when Walmart and Amazon go to war with each other to offer the lowest prices and clear out inventory before Christmas, de Grandpre says. And the best deals on name-brand TVs and luxury items can be found in early December, too. DO check return policies. Some retailers tighten their policies around the holidays. Some charge restocking fees if you bring an item back. And some won't let you exchange items that were manufactured specifically for Black Friday (to be sold at a low price). So be sure to ask each store what its policy is, and hang on to your receipts. DON'T spring for extended warranties on big-ticket items. There's a good chance that a salesperson will try to talk you into paying extra for an extended warranty if you purchase a big-ticket item on Black Friday. That's because revenue from extended warranties helps make up for lost profits on discounted items. Typically, you'll pay 10% to 20% more for an item to extend a one-year manufacturer's warranty through the fifth year of ownership. But most major appliances do not break down within the extended-warranty period. Plus, you might already be covered if you use your credit card to purchase an item (see What You Need to Know About Warranties). AND FINALLY … DON'T wait until the week before Christmas to shop. Retailers often raise prices because supplies are limited and they know that last-minute shoppers will pay more to purchase all the items on their gift lists. Reprinted with permission. All Contents ©2011 The Kiplinger Washington Editors. www.kiplinger.com. Economic Calendar for the Week of November 21 - November 25 Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact Mon. November 21 10:00 Existing Home Sales Oct 4.85M 4.91M Moderate Tue. November 22 08:30 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q3 2.5% 2.5% Moderate Tue. November 22 08:30 GDP Chain Deflator Q3 2.5% 2.5% Moderate Tue. November 22 02:00 FOMC Minutes 11/2 HIGH Wed. November 23 08:30 Durable Goods Orders Oct -1.0% -0.6% Moderate Wed. November 23 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE Oct NA 1.6% HIGH Wed. November 23 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE Oct 0.1% 0.1% HIGH Wed. November 23 08:30 Personal Income Oct 0.3% 0.1% Moderate Wed. November 23 08:30 Personal Spending Oct 0.3% 0.6% Moderate Wed. November 23 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 11/19 391K 388K Moderate Wed. November 23 10:00 Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM) Nov 64.2 64.2 Moderate

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors. As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you. Mortgage Success Source, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Success Source, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.