FTC Warns of New E-mail Scam and Economic news

In This Issue

Last Week in Review: Good news moved the markets. How were home loan rates impacted? Forecast for the Week: A busy week is ahead, with news on inflation, consumer confidence and spending, manufacturing, the labor market and more. View: There's a new scam targeting small businesses. See important details below.

Last Week in Review

"Happy days are here again." Milton Ager and Jack Yellen. There was more evidence last week that the housing market is improving. But not everything that happened last week was cause for song. Read on to learn more. Last week, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) reported that home prices rose by 0.6% in November from October, and that they are up 5.6% from the year ended in November. These numbers are based on data received from Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac mortgages. In addition, both Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales for December, though below estimates, were strong numbers for 2012. But the housing market wasn't the only area where we saw positive economic data last week. There was good economic news out of Germany, plus several companies here reported strong earnings, including Procter & Gamble and Honeywell. In addition, weekly Initial Jobless Claims dropped by 5,000 to 330,000 in the latest survey: this is the lowest level since January of 2008. It is important to note that estimates were used for three states, including Virginia and California, so the numbers could be distorted. How were home loan rates impacted? The mix of good economic news last week caused investors to move their money out of Bonds, which are considered safer investments, and into Stocks in the hopes of taking advantage of gains. And since home loan rates are tied to Mortgage Bonds, as Bonds worsened last week, so did home loan rates. But rates remain close to historic lows, and now is still a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

Forecast for the Week

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Jan 25, 2013)

A full slate of economic reports is ahead, with several key data points that could move the markets. Monday's Durable Goods Orders and Wednesday's Gross Domestic Product Report will give us signs as to how our economy is doing. Monday also brings more news on the housing market with Pending Home Sales, which will be followed by Tuesday's Case Shiller 20-city Home Price Index. We'll get a sense of how the consumer is feeling with Consumer Confidence on Tuesday and the Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday. Thursday brings several key economic reports, including Initial Jobless Claims, Chicago PMI, Personal Income and Spending, and the inflation-reading Core Personal Consumption Expenditure, the Fed's favorite measure of inflation. Rounding out the week, the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls will be reported along with the Unemployment Rate. Also on Friday, the ISM Index will be delivered. In addition, the Federal Reserve will meet for its two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, with the monetary policy statement released at 2:15pm ET on Wednesday. The statement will be dissected for any hints on the current purchase programs of Mortgage Backed and Treasury Securities. If there is any talk of halting the programs this year, it could lead to lower Bond prices and a push higher in home loan rates. Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on. When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving -- and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse. To go one step further -- a red "candle" means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green "candle" means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning. As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates worsened after positive economic data was released last week. I'll continue to watch all the news and market action closely.

The Mortgage Market Guide View...

FTC Warns of New E-mail Scam Small-business owners are the target of this phishing scheme. By Cameron Huddleston, Kiplinger.com The Federal Trade Commission is warning small-business owners not to open e-mails with the subject line "Notification of Consumer Complaint." The e-mail falsely claims to be from the FTC and states that a complaint has been filed with the government agency against their company. E-mails of this sort often prompt recipients to click on a link or open an attachment. However, these links and attachments usually install malware or a virus on your computer if you click on them. Then you're at risk of having personal information stored on your computer stolen. The FTC says that you should delete such e-mails. It also offers tips on how to reduce your risk of downloading malicious software onto your computer. Keep your security software updated by setting it to update automatically. Don't buy software in response to pop-up messages on your computer or e-mails. Scammers use ads that claim to have scanned your computer and detected malware to get people to install malicious software. Make sure your Internet browser security setting is high enough to detect unauthorized downloads. For example, Internet Explorer users should have their security setting at medium, at a minimum. Use a pop-up blocker on your browser (look for the security tab in your brower's options). Links in pop-ups can contain malware. If you notice that your computer is running slower, crashes often or repeatedly displays error messages, it may have a virus. Other warnings signs include new toolbars or icons on your desktop, a barrage of pop-ups, Web sites that you didn't intend to visit displaying on your screen and a laptop battery that drains quickly. See Protect Yourself From New Phishing Schemes for more advice on avoiding fraudulent e-mails. Reprinted with permission. All Contents ©2013 The Kiplinger Washington Editors. Kiplinger.com. Economic Calendar for the Week of January 28 - February 01 Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact Mon. January 28 08:30 Durable Goods Orders Dec 2.5%   0.8% Moderate Mon. January 28 10:00 Pending Home Sales Dec 0.8%   1.7% Moderate Tue. January 29 09:00 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Nov NA   4.3% Moderate Tue. January 29 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jan 64.6   65.1 Moderate Wed. January 30 02:15 FOMC Meeting Jan NA   0.25% HIGH Wed. January 30 01:00 GDP Chain Deflator Q4 NA   2.7% Moderate Wed. January 30 08:30 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q4 1.0%   3.1% Moderate Wed. January 30 08:15 ADP National Employment Report Jan 165K   215K Moderate Thu. January 31 09:45 Chicago PMI Jan 50.3   48.9 Moderate Thu. January 31 08:30 Employment Cost Index (ECI) Q4 0.5%   0.4% Moderate Thu. January 31 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE Dec NA   0.0% HIGH Thu. January 31 08:30 Personal Spending Dec 0.3%   0.4% Moderate Thu. January 31 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE YOY NA   1.5% HIGH Thu. January 31 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 01/26 350K   330K Moderate Thu. January 31 08:30 Personal Income Dec 0.8%   0.6% Moderate Fri. February 01 08:30 Non-farm Payrolls Jan 158K   155K HIGH Fri. February 01 08:30 Unemployment Rate Jan 7.8%   7.8% HIGH Fri. February 01 08:30 Average Work Week Jan NA   34.5 HIGH Fri. February 01 10:00 Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM) Jan 71.3   71.3 Moderate Fri. February 01 10:00 ISM Services Index Jan 50.5   50.7 Moderate Fri. February 01 08:30 Hourly Earnings Jan NA   0.3% HIGH

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors. As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you. Mortgage Success Source, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Success Source, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.

January 2013 Views You Can Use

IN THIS ISSUE...           "WE'VE WANDERED MANY A WEARY FOOT, SINCE AULD LANG SYNE." - The Scottish tune Auld Lang Syne is commonly sung at the stroke of midnight on New Year's. While the literal translation of the title means "old long ago," the loose translation can be thought of as "for the sake of old times." This year, the tune seems particularly appropriate, as the U.S. economy has traveled a weary road over the last few years. The economic concerns may not be completely behind us (just look at the Fiscal Cliff standoff for evidence of that), but the outlook looks better than it did a few years ago. The articles below can help you ring in the New Year with information and tips you need to know: Home for the New Year - The housing industry received mixed news last month, but the overall direction looks positive. What to Watch - What does the Fed's recent announcement of more Quantitative Easing mean for the economy? Find out below. Comfy and Cozy - Use these tips to create a warm décor after the holidays. Q&A: Labor Force Participation? - What is the Labor Force Participation Rate? The answer is more important than you may think! Have a safe and happy new year. And if you have any questions or would like to discuss your unique situation, call or email today. Please forward this newsletter to friends, family members and coworkers who may find this information helpful.     Home for the New Year's Holiday   As we head into the new year, there is mixed news in the housing market. For example, the most recent New Home Sales report came in last month worse than expected, but Existing Home Sales jumped nearly 6% to come in better than expected. Similarly, the most recent Housing Starts report came in below expectations, but Building Permits rose 3.5% to come in better than anticipated. Even home prices received mixed news. Last month's release of the Case Shiller Index reported that home prices were up 3% from September 2011. The chart accompanying this article shows the latest increases across the country. However, shortly after the release of the report on home prices, Robert Shiller (of the Case Shiller Index) warned that we could see home prices dip again in 2013. The bottom line is that the housing market is still experiencing challenges that won't go away overnight, but it is showing signs of recovery and the overall trend in 2013 looks positive. Speaking of housing, do you know how many people live in the United States as we ring in the new year? According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the projected population is 315 million people. That's a lot of people looking forward to continued economic recovery--and maybe even a new home--in 2013. One thing is for sure: This year will surely have its challenges, but it will also be filled with hope and opportunity. This time of year is ideal for looking forward to those opportunities, as we also reflect on where we've come from. After all, the month of January is named after Janus, the Roman mythical god known for the ability to look back and forward at the same time. Happy New Year to you and your family! May you be blessed with happiness and opportunities in 2013. And if I can be of any assistance, please just call or email.

What to Watch: Quantitative Easing in 2013

In their final meeting of 2012, the Fed vowed to continue the third round of their Bond buying strategy (known as Quantitative Easing or QE3). They also announced they will begin a fourth round of Quantitative Easing in January.

But what really took the markets by surprise was the Fed's decision to tie the Fed Funds Rate (the rate banks charge each other for lending money overnight) to the Unemployment Rate. Instead of sticking with their plan of maintaining low rates until "at least mid-2015," now the Fed is going to hold the Fed Funds Rate steady as "long as the Unemployment Rate remains above 6.5%."

One of the biggest takeaways from this decision is that the Fed may be more tolerant of a rise in inflation. Lower unemployment would mean that the economy is gaining some steam, thanks in part to the stimulus programs like QE3 that are currently underway, and inflation could easily trend higher in an improving economy. Remember, inflation is the archenemy of Bonds--and, therefore, of home loan rates, since home loan rates are tied to Mortgage Bonds--because inflation reduces the value of fixed investments like Bonds.

Recent reports have shown that inflation remains tame. However, when inflation manifests, it tends to do so quickly. So the Fed's Quantiative Easing (as well as inflation) will be important to watch in the weeks and months ahead.

Comfy and Cozy: 3 Decorating Tips for a Warm Decor After the Holidays

The holidays are over and you're slowly getting your house back to normal. But that doesn't mean you have to pack away the cozy, comfortable feeling all those holiday decorations add to your home.

With some simple decorations or re-arranged furniture, you can keep the cozy feeling for the rest of the winter months. Here are 3 simple tips that can help.

1. Coziness is in the details

Every family has traditions and memories that are unique, so celebrate those differences with subtle reminders around your house. Just remember not to go overboard. A little here, a little there can go a long way to creating a warm, inviting atmosphere. But too much will look cluttered and chaotic. Try decorating your home with some of the following:

Family photos--Groupings of family photos should be first on your list. Find shelf space or side tables that could use a personal touch, and then add a few family photos. The frames don't have to match, but they should coordinate...and they should have the same design as the mood you're trying to create. If it's coziness you seek, try adding rich wood frames and classic designs to your decor.

Heirlooms and antiques--You'd be surprised what an antique camera can add to a display of family photos. Or how an antique vase can set the tone for an entire room. These items are inexpensive to purchase at an antique store, but if you have a family heirloom with a story it's even better.

Personal or seasonal touches--Remember, your family and your community are unique and should be celebrated. So, for example, if your family took a unique vacation to a sandy beach last year, you can fill a decorative jar with the sand and surround it with a photo or two. Or, you can simply bring natural elements-such as pinecones or autumn leaves-inside and place them in a large bowl or dish with photos or candles.

Warm the senses--Don't forget to fill the air with a fresh fragrance that fits the mood you're creating. Often, those fresh scents are the first things that visitors notice. So consider lighting scented candles, purchasing plug-in air fresheners with seasonal scents, or just baking homemade cookies before company arrives.

2. Setting the scene

This time of year, you're probably re-arranging some of your rooms after packing away holiday decorations. Before you settle back into your old layout though, take a few minutes to think about how your furniture can add to the coziness of your house.

Start with the seating. For instance, can you place the sofa and a few armchairs so they're facing each other-making it natural and comfortable for people to sit and visit? If you have a fireplace, this is the perfect time of year to make that the focal point of the room (you can always arrange your seating around the television once the winter season is over). Area rugs and throw pillows can help tie the furniture together and create a cohesive, warm feeling.

Also look for cozy corners where you can place two chairs and a small game table for checkers or cards. For even smaller spaces, consider placing a single chair, a lamp, and a stack of books or magazines for an inviting retreat.

3. A soft, warm glow

One of the easiest and most inexpensive ways to set the mood in a room is to adjust your lighting. Remember, those bright overhead lights are often harsh on the eyes and don't help create the warm atmosphere you're seeking. Try adding a few floor lamps, small table lamps, and even wall sconces for softer, more indirect lighting. Also, use lower wattage bulbs in your lights for a more relaxed environment.

During the day, make sure you're taking full advantage of the natural light that enters your house. For example, don't place larger, dark-colored objects too close to your windows; even if they don't block the light, they'll make the window feel smaller and will overpower the natural light that's trying to enter.

Finally, don't forget that the best light source is sometimes a candle. You can set a single candle on a table or create a grouping on a mantle, in a fireplace, or on a wall sconce. You can even place them in front of a mirror to heighten the impact. But don't feel like you have to overdo it...even small votive candles can make a big difference.

NOTE: If you have young children or are concerned about a fire hazard in a certain location, you can opt for the warm glow of a fake candle. There are a number of sizes and options available today. Most are inexpensive and look quite real.

Follow these 3 simple steps or get creative and come up with ideas of your own to help warm up the winter months with a cozy, comfortable home decor.

Q&A: Labor Force Participation?

QUESTION: What is the Labor Force Participation Rate...and why does it matter?

ANSWER: The article above stated that the Fed recently tied their Quantitative Easing strategy to unemployment. But, when we talk about unemployment, we need to consider how many people are out of work and how many people aren't even looking for work. That means, we need to look at two reports: (1) the official Unemployment Rate and (2) the Labor Force Participation Rate.

Last month, the Labor Department reported that the Unemployment Rate hit 7.7%, the lowest level since December 2008. On the surface, that seems like a positive sign for the labor market and the U.S. economy. But it is also important to understand that the decrease in the Unemployment Rate was due in part to 350,000 people dropping out of the workforce.

That's where the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) comes in. The LFPR calculation is quite simple. If you are 16 years old and not in the military, then you either have a job or you don't. The ratio of people "participating" or working is then compared to the total population.

Last month's report indicated that the LFPR fell to the lowest reading in over 31 years. So some of the good news regarding the lower Unemployment Rate is offset by the fact that fewer people are even participating or looking for work. Those two reports will be important to watch as we head into 2013, especially since the Fed is tying Quantitative Easing to the Unemployment Rate.

	The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, real estate and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is without errors. As your Trusted Advisor, I always want to make sure you are clear on all details of the home financing process. If you or someone you know are interested in purchasing or refinancing a home, give me a call today! Mortgage Success Source, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated. Mortgage Success Source, LLC does not grant to the recipient or distributor a license to any content, features or materials in this email. You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.

Uncertainty Remains at Home and Abroad

In This Issue

Last Week in Review: The economic report calendar was quiet, but there was still plenty of news to move the markets. Forecast for the Week: A full slate of economic reports is ahead, with news on consumer sentiment and spending, inflation, manufacturing and housing. View: Interruptions at work can hinder productivity, maybe even more than you think. Check out these tips below and be sure to share them with colleagues, clients, friends and family.

Last Week in Review

All's quiet on the economic report front. And while there was little economic report news during the first full week of January, the markets still had plenty of other news to digest. Read on for details. The only economic report to note last week was Thursday's Weekly Initial Jobless Claims Report. Initial Jobless Claims rose by 4,000 in the latest week to 371,000. This was above expectations and the highest number in a month. While the recently released Jobs Report for December showed that the labor market is continuing to improve, though at an anemic pace, it's also important that we see these weekly initial jobless claims numbers continue to decline. Also in the news last week, Fannie Mae reported that its national housing survey showed that 43% of those consumers polled feel that home prices will rise in 2013. However, 20% said that their financial situations will deteriorate this year due to the debt ceiling worries and the rise in taxes. And in news overseas, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that he sees further risks to the region's economic outlook. So what does this mean for home loan rates? Stocks did reach five-year highs last week--at the expense of Bonds and home loan rates--after the Fiscal Cliff deal was reached and investors felt that the pace of economic growth would increase due to the deal passing. However, uncertainty both here at home (due to the debt ceiling worries) and overseas (due to the continuing debt crisis in Europe) means that investors will likely continue to see our Bond market as a safe haven for their money. This could ultimately benefit Bonds--and home loan rates, which are tied to Mortgage Bonds--in the process. The bottom line is that home loan rates remain near historic lows, meaning now is a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

Forecast for the Week

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Jan 11, 2013) After last week's quiet economic report calendar, this week's calendar heats up. Retail Sales will be released on Tuesday and investors will look to see if consumers opened their wallets during the holiday shopping season. We'll get a double dose of inflation news this week, with the wholesale-measuring Producer Price Index on Tuesday and the Consumer Price Index on Wednesday. Housing Starts and Building Permits will be reported on Thursday along with Weekly Initial Jobless Claims. We'll also see a double dose of manufacturing news, with the Empire State Index on Tuesday and the Philly Fed Index released on Thursday. To close out the week, the Consumer Sentiment Report will be released on Friday. Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on. When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving -- and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse. To go one step further -- a red "candle" means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green "candle" means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning. As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates worsened last week as Stocks hit five-year highs. But home loan rates remain near historic lows and I'll be watching closely to see what happens this week.

The Mortgage Market Guide View...

Pardon the Intrusion The High Cost of Office Interruptions Getting into that peak state of performance some people call "flow"--where ideas come easy and productivity seemingly doubles, or triples if you're lucky--is an elusive state for many office workers. Basex, a research and advisory firm, estimated the cost of workplace interruptions such as unscheduled calls, emails, and instant messaging at around $588 billion per year in lost productivity for the U.S. economy. And that's not all. New York Times bestseller Brain Rules, written by developmental molecular biologist Dr. John Medina, points out... A task that's interrupted takes 50% longer and has 50% more mistakes than an uninterrupted one On average, an interrupted worker takes 23 minutes to get back to the original task, and an additional 30 minutes to return to the "flow" state 80% of the time workers will return to an interrupted task later in the day; in 1 out of 5 occurrences, however, they will not be able to return to it the same day Frequent task changes without completion significantly increases stress levels as opposed to handling things to completion one at a time The bottom line is interruptions not only hurt your productivity but may also harm your health. Try to limit interruptions during your day as much as possible by: Checking email or taking calls only during certain times of the day Keeping your door closed Wearing headphones (even if nothing is playing) Making sure every staff member knows the true cost of their interruptions And the next time you want to interrupt someone else, remember that your 30 second request may easily become an hour of extra work--not to mention additional mistakes that take even more time to correct later on. Economic Calendar for the Week of January 14 - January 18 Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact Tue. January 15 08:30 Retail Sales Dec 0.2% 0.3% HIGH Tue. January 15 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Dec 0.3% 0.0% HIGH Tue. January 15 08:30 Producer Price Index (PPI) Dec 0.0% -0.8% Moderate Tue. January 15 08:30 Core Producer Price Index (PPI) Dec 0.2% 0.1% Moderate Tue. January 15 08:30 Empire State Index Jan 2.0 -8.1 Moderate Wed. January 16 08:30 Beige Book Jan NA NA Moderate Wed. January 16 08:30 Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) Dec 0.1% 0.1% HIGH Wed. January 16 08:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) Dec 0.0% -0.3% HIGH Thu. January 17 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 1/12 370K 371K Moderate Thu. January 17 08:30 Building Permits Dec 905K 899K Moderate Thu. January 17 08:30 Housing Starts Dec 889K 861K Moderate Thu. January 17 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Index Jan 5.2 4.6 HIGH Fri. January 18 10:00 Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM) Jan 75.0 72.9 Moderate

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors. As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you. Mortgage Success Source, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Success Source, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.