Labor Market NOT Springing to Life and Economic News

In This Issue

Last Week in Review: Important jobs data for March was released. How did home loan rates respond? Forecast for the Week: Several key reports will be released during the second half of the week. Plus on Wednesday, look for the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in March. View: "KISS" complexity in your business goodbye with these great tips.

Last Week in Review

"Don't believe the hype." Unfortunately, the lyrics from Public Enemy's hit song came true last week when the official Jobs Report for March was released. Read on for details, and what they mean for home loan rates. On Friday, the Labor Department reported that 88,000 jobs were created in March--less than half the 192,000 expected. This was the lowest monthly job creations number since June 2012, and could be the beginning of a slowdown in the labor market this spring. There was one small positive note, however, as the number of job creations for January and February were revised higher by 61,000. The Unemployment Rate fell to 7.6 percent, which is the lowest level since December 2008. While this sounds like good news, the decrease can be partly attributed to the fact that 500,000 people left the workforce. As a result, the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) fell to 63.3 percent: its lowest level since 1979. Remember: the LFPR calculation is quite simple. If you are 16 years old and not in the military, then you either have a job or you don't. The ratio of people "participating" or working is then compared to the total population. The Jobs Report wasn't the only poor economic report released last week. The ISM Manufacturing Index was below expectations, ADP private jobs data was less than expected, planned job cuts were up 30 percent from last year, and the employment component within the ISM Services Index fell. What does this mean for home loan rates? Remember that weak economic news often causes investors to move their money out of Stocks and into safer investments like Bonds. This includes Mortgage Bonds, to which home loan rates are tied. And last week's string of poor economic reports, coupled with the tensions in North Korea and the debt woes in Europe, helped Bonds and home loan rates reach some of their best levels this year. The bottom line is that home loan rates remain near historic lows, making now a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

Forecast for the Week

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Apr 05, 2013)

The second half of the week heats up with several important reports. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be released on Thursday. Last week's report showed that initial claims surged by 28,000 to 385,000, the highest number since November and well above expectations. On Friday, we'll get a sense of consumer spending with the Retail Sales Report for March and a sense of how consumers are feeling with the Consumer Sentiment Index. Also on Friday, the Producer Price Index will show us March's inflation reading at the wholesale level. In addition, the minutes from the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will be released on Wednesday. Traders will be looking at this closely, especially regarding any mention of the Fed's Bond purchase program known as Quantitative Easing. Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on. When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving --and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse. To go one step further --a red "candle" means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green "candle" means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning. As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates improved last week after weak economic data was released and tensions increased with North Korea. I'll continue to monitor their movement closely.

The Mortgage Market Guide View...

KISS the Chef How Doing Too Much Can Kill Your Business Kitchen Nightmares, featuring Scottish chef Gordon Ramsay, was a long running hit show in Britain well before FOX brought it to Americans in 2007. The show presents a critical lesson for business owners and professionals everywhere: don't let things get too complicated. From the elaborate menus to strange customer service habits, the "broken" restaurants featured on the show persist, day after day, to slowly choke out the ability to do what they are supposed to--fulfill the need of customers efficiently and consistently. It's a lesson well worth listening to, especially from Gordon Ramsay. He is recipient of 15 Michelin Stars and no stranger to success, but he's also admitted losing a few of his own restaurants to mismanagement and over-extension. Kitchen Nightmares makes the viewer keenly feel the validity of the "KISS principle". KISS is an acronym for "Keep it simple stupid" and it was coined by U.S. Navy engineers in 1960 to stress the importance of building aircraft that could be repaired on the battlefield by a regular mechanic using only basic tools. Essentially, the KISS principle states that most systems work better when they are simple rather than complex. Here are a few ideas on how to keep things simple in your business: Identify the need you fulfill. Whether you sell homes or financial services you are fulfilling a need for your clients that has nothing to do with real estate or stocks and bonds--try to think of the psychological need you fulfill. Build your plan to serve that need. You may have the ability to offer other services that don't serve the core need of your market, but avoid the temptation to use them if possible. The likelihood of confusing your prospects and customers is too high to justify the value you think you're creating. Don't get too elaborate with systems. Especially the ones that impact customer service. While every business should have processes for everything, the more common sense they are the better. If yours are intuitive and easy to perform for both staff and clients, they are going to be win-win. Stay focused. If you're in business to sell houses or do financial planning, don't extend your brand to include staging or insurance--or anything else you can think of that might dilute your ability to perform the core need. Feel free to pass this along to clients and colleagues who might benefit from these tips! Economic Calendar for the Week of April 08 - April 12 Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact Wed. April 10 02:00 FOMC Minutes 3/20       HIGH Thu. April 11 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 4/6 NA   NA Moderate Fri. April 12 08:30 Retail Sales Mar NA   1.1% Moderate Fri. April 12 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Mar NA   1.0% Moderate Fri. April 12 08:30 Producer Price Index (PPI) Mar NA   0.7% Moderate Fri. April 12 08:30 Core Producer Price Index (PPI) Mar NA   0.2% Moderate Fri. April 12 10:00 Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM) Apr NA   78.6 Moderate

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors. As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you Mortgage Success Source, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Success Source, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.

Holiday Issue and Economic news

Holiday Issue

I sincerely hope you have been enjoying your complimentary subscription to the MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE WEEKLY. Your next full issue will arrive "hot off the press" next week. In the meantime, see the article below for some great tips on eliminating writer's block and making the most of social media to increase your business network. The MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE WEEKLY is the industry's leading publication of this type, and I'm pleased to provide this valuable resource to you. If you feel that any of your clients, friends, colleagues or associates would benefit from keeping up-to-date on market and economic trends with this easy-to-read format, please let me know and I will be happy to add them free of charge.

The Mortgage Market Guide View...

6 Resources to Eliminate Writer's Block For Non-Writers and Busy Professionals Ever feel reluctant to blog or discouraged over cooking up interesting social media posts? Having something new and fascinating to say on a daily basis can be a challenge. The good news is so-called writer's block is usually the result of not having enough input, doing thorough research or trying to write off the cuff. Here are 6 rock-solid resources to help you get good ideas more often... Active social media posts. It's easy to find out what's hot and get a feel for what other people are doing successfully by simply looking through social media posts. The great thing about social media is you can tell which ideas have traction and which are duds just by looking at the comments, likes, +1's, etc. Keep your eye open for articles or posts with lots of activity and then put your own spin on them. Popular blogs. Find a few popular blogs in your niche and follow them. Make sure to sign up to get their update emails so you can see how they promote. And just like with tip #1 above, you can share your personal angle with your followers. (Find a few blogs not in your niche and follow them, too–good ideas are everywhere!) Humor helps... Ever notice how much attention humorous posts get? Sometimes just tickling people's funny bone can spark goodwill online. You may not even have to come up with anything at all, just repost someone else's idea. It goes without saying you should avoid reposting anything crude, overly edgy, or even too sarcastic. When in doubt, don't post it, or you could find that goodwill flying out the window fast. Inspirational quotes. If using humor presents too much "gray area" then inspiration is the next most powerful way to connect quickly. Check out the many quote sites online for some excellent ideas. Welcome to the jungle. Reading widely will turn you into an idea machine very quickly. But if it's quick inspiration you seek, look no further than book and magazine listings on Amazon.com–especially the reviews–it's one of the best, unsung research resources online for writers of any kind. Need a topic or title? Need a headline? Need to know what people are saying about just about any subject? Check it out! Special interest forums and discussion groups. The best way to put your finger on the pulse of your market, while generating hundreds of ideas for relevant topics, is to join online forums or discussion groups in the niche you serve. If it's a group of other professionals in your niche, well, you might come across a few tips. But if you can eavesdrop on a forum composed of people who could be your actual clients–you've struck gold! Not only will you'll get invaluable intelligence on how to better serve your clients, you'll have a treasure trove of ready-made ideas for relevant topics your market will devour. Next time you're stuck try one of these tips–you'll be off and running with so many ideas you won't be able to use all of them. And make sure to pass these tips along to your clients and colleagues!

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors. As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you. Mortgage Success Source, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Success Source, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.

Housing starts to break free and economic news

In This Issue

Last Week in Review: Several key housing reports were released. Plus the Fed met and there was more drama in Europe. Forecast for the Week: A holiday-shortened week is ahead, but look for important news on consumer confidence, the economy, housing, inflation, and more. View: Learn how to grow your business and get the most out of your LinkedIn profile with these tips below.

Last Week in Review

"I'm on my way...just set me free...home sweet home." The lyrics from Mötley Crüe's Home Sweet Home sound a lot like something the housing industry might have sang last week, after more good housing news was reported. Housing Starts rose slightly in February, coming in above expectations and up 28 percent since this time last year. Both Single-Family Housing Starts and Building Permits (a sign of future construction) also increased, reaching their highest levels since June 2008. In addition, Existing Home Sales rose by 0.8 percent in February from January to an annual rate of 4.98 million units. They are up 10.2 percent from the February 2012 rate of 4.52 million units. But the good news didn't stop there. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the 4-week moving average of jobless claims (which evens out seasonal abnormalities) are hovering near five-year lows. While the labor sector has been improving, it's important to note that with the Unemployment Rate at 7.5 percent and the Labor Force Participation Rate dropping, further improvement is still needed in this sector. There was expected news from the Fed last week, as they announced they will continue their Bond purchase program (known as Quantitative Easing). And there was dramatic news out of Europe, as Cyprus is the latest country in need of a bailout. Protests and a run on banks occurred there. What does all of this mean for home loan rates? Good housing and other economic news will likely cause investors to continue to move money out of Bonds and into riskier assets like Stocks, to try to take advantage of gains. But with the Fed still purchasing $85 billion in Bonds every month and the continued drama in Europe, the safe haven trade into our Bond market should also continue. Overall, this should help keep Mortgage Bonds--and therefore home loan rates, which are tied to Mortgage Bonds--near record best levels. The bottom line is that now is a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance, as home loan rates remain near historic lows. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

Forecast for the Week

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Mar 22, 2013)

The Bond market will close early on Thursday and both the Stock and Bond markets will be closed on Friday for the Good Friday holiday. But there will be plenty of important news before then. We'll get a sense of how the consumer is feeling with Tuesday's Consumer Confidence Report and Friday's Consumer Sentiment Index, both for March. We'll also get a sense of how the economy is doing with Tuesday's Durable Goods Orders, which tracks orders on big ticket items used for an extended period of time, and Thursday's 2012 Q4 Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate). A triple dose of housing news is ahead with Tuesday's New Home Sales and Case-Shiller Home Price Index, followed by Pending Home Sales on Wednesday. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be reported on Thursday along with the manufacturing sector's Chicago PMI Report. Ending the week, Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed's favorite measure of inflation, Personal Income and Personal Spending will be reported on Friday. Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on. When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving -- and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse. To go one step further -- a red "candle" means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green "candle" means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning. As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates remain near record best levels. I will continue to watch this closely.

The Mortgage Market Guide View...

Social Media Spotlight Networking on LinkedIn Made Easy Depending on how you use it, social media can be a fantastic source of new business, a bit of amusement around lunchtime, or a tremendous waste of time. LinkedIn is one of those social networks most people don't think of immediately as a social network, but when you're looking to grow your business contacts--and actually get some new business along the way--look no further than LinkedIn. Before we reveal the most effective way to use it, here are a few interesting statistics and a link to an enlightening infographic on LinkedIn: 37.6 percent of users say LinkedIn has helped them build new relationships with potential customers... 44.5 percent of users say LinkedIn has helped them increase face-to-face networking effectiveness... 49.7 percent of users say LinkedIn has built new networking relationships with individuals who may influence potential customers... So, how can you use LinkedIn to get more business? Make sure your profile is 100% complete. Over 50% of profiles are incomplete, but a complete profile is the best way to sell "you" without selling at all. Listing your accomplishments, building your recommendations, listing your favorite business books, connecting your blog, attaching PowerPoint presentations, and being thorough (and interesting) with your background information all combine to make potential business connections feel like they know you a little bit already. Connect with people you don't already know. LinkedIn recommends you only connect with people you already know, but advice around the web advises connecting with anyone who asks and asking those you want to know--but this advice comes with one very important caveat: always follow up with your new connections. Ask about their business and talk about the kinds of business you're both looking for. Do you know anyone they need to know or vice-versa? If it appears there might be a foundation to build on, set up a phone call or meet over coffee to discuss things further. Don't expect it to do all the work for you. Just having a half-completed profile will not get you any new business. But let's face it: making contacts online is easier than going door-to-door looking for new business. LinkedIn is a powerful social network and networking tool for professionals and getting new business is not nearly as complicated as it first appears. Make sure to pass these tips along to your clients and colleagues--and happy networking! Economic Calendar for the Week of March 25 - March 29 Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact Tue. March 26 08:30 Durable Goods Orders Feb NA   -5.2% Moderate Tue. March 26 09:00 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Jan NA   6.8% Moderate Tue. March 26 10:00 Consumer Confidence Mar NA   69.0 Moderate Tue. March 26 10:00 New Home Sales Feb 426K   437K Moderate Wed. March 27 10:00 Pending Home Sales Feb NA   4.5% Moderate Thu. March 28 09:45 Chicago PMI Mar NA   56.8 Moderate Thu. March 28 08:30 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q4 NA   0.1% Moderate Thu. March 28 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 3/23 NA   NA Moderate Fri. March 29 08:30 Personal Income Feb NA   -3.6% Moderate Fri. March 29 08:30 Personal Spending Feb NA   0.2% Moderate Fri. March 29 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE YOY NA   0.1% HIGH Fri. March 29 10:00 Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM) Mar NA   NA Moderate

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors. As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you. Mortgage Success Source, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Success Source, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.

Good Jobs and Housing News and Economic News

In This Issue

Last Week in Review: Surprising jobs news for February, plus more good news on the housing front. Forecast for the Week: Several key reports will be released in the second half of the week, including inflation and retail sales. Plus, will Stocks reach another record? View: Want more attention from your marketplace? Be sure to read the tips below.

Last Week in Review

It's been said that "life is full of surprises." And indeed, last week's Jobs Report contained several surprises. Read on to find out if they were good or bad...and what they meant for home loan rates. The Jobs Report for February showed that 236,000 jobs were created, well above the 165,000 that was expected. In addition, private employers added 246,000 new jobs in February, also well above expectations. While this is good news, it's important to note that job creations in January were revised downward to 119,000 from the previous reading of 157,000. There was more good news in the report: the Unemployment Rate fell to 7.7% from 7.9%, a four-year low. However, the downtick in the unemployment rate was due to more people leaving the labor force. And the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) continues to decrease, coming in at its lowest level since September 1981. The LFPR calculation is quite simple. If you are 16 years old and not in the military, then you either have a job or you don't. The ratio of people "participating" or working is then compared to the total population. All in all, the Jobs Report showed that the labor market is slowly improving. And there was more evidence that the housing market continues to improve. Research firm CoreLogic reported that home prices rose 0.7% from December to January and surged nearly 10% compared to a year ago. The 10% increase was the largest yearly increase since April 2006 and was the eleventh monthly increase in a row. Though not all the economic news was rosy: Worker Productivity in the 4th quarter of 2012 slowed to its slowest pace in four years. This coincides with the slow growth that was recently reported in the Gross Domestic Product reading for the same period. What does all of this mean for home loan rates? The good economic news has caused investors to move money out of Bonds and into riskier assets like Stocks, to try to take advantage of gains. As a result, Stocks reached record highs last week, at the expense of Bonds. However, the Fed continues purchasing $85 billion in Bonds every month as part of their Bond purchase program known as Quantitative Easing. Plus, there is also continued uncertainty out of Europe, meaning some investors will likely continue their safe haven trade into our Bond Market. Overall, this should help keep Mortgage Bonds--and therefore home loan rates, which are tied to Mortgage Bonds--near record best levels. The bottom line is that now remains a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance, as home loan rates remain near historic lows. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

Forecast for the Week

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Mar 08, 2013) The second half of the week heats up with several key reports. Economic reports kick off on Wednesday with Retail Sales. As usual, Thursday brings Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, as well as the wholesale-measuring Producer Price Index, the first of the week's inflation reports. There's more inflation news on Friday with the Consumer Price Index. Also look for Empire Manufacturing and Consumer Sentiment to conclude the week. Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on. When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving -- and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse. To go one step further -- a red "candle" means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green "candle" means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning. As you can see in the chart below, Bonds worsened last week as Stocks hit record highs. But Bonds and home loan rates remain near record best levels and I will continue to watch their movement closely.

The Mortgage Market Guide View...

New Report Says Blogs More Influential than Facebook, Twitter Have you been wondering how to get more attention from your marketplace? Are you trying to find new ways to bring in more business? Well, if you haven't already started blogging, you may want to give it another look. Technorati Media, one of the largest social media ad networks, recently released their 2013 Digital Influence Report--a survey including over 6,000 influencers, 1,200 consumers and 150 other top marketers--revealing when it comes to making purchase decisions, blogs are the third most influential resource (31 percent!), second only to retail and brand sites. The survey participants said blogs rank higher than Twitter for shaping their opinions and higher than Facebook for motivating purchasing decisions. The reason? Bloggers tend to be more honest with their opinions and are perceived as less self-serving than other sources. Here are four ways to be influential with your online community: Be honest. People turn to blogs because they want honest opinions and professional advice. Don't be afraid to be yourself or use some personality both with your topics and your writing style. Focus on providing value. Building strong relationships with your followers is easy when you provide great value for them. Relationships are really a by-product of providing great content and a sense of community. Be the go-to. Becoming a local guru is neither difficult nor undesirable. If you can establish yourself as a trusted source of information, people will follow you for your specific advice...and so will the business. Get synergy. Don't ignore Facebook or Twitter, but don't rely on them for the full job. When you provide compelling content on your blog, use social media to amplify the content. The key to influencing your customers on Facebook is to share things that generate likes, comments, and interaction. Blog posts are a great way to do just that! Economic Calendar for the Week of March 11 - March 15 Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact Wed. March 13 08:30 Retail Sales Feb NA 0.1% HIGH Wed. March 13 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Feb NA 0.2% HIGH Thu. March 14 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 3/09 NA NA Moderate Thu. March 14 08:30 Producer Price Index (PPI) Feb NA 0.2% Moderate Thu. March 14 08:30 Core Producer Price Index (PPI) Feb NA 0.2% Moderate Fri. March 15 08:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) Feb NA 0.0% HIGH Fri. March 15 08:30 Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) Feb NA 0.3% HIGH Fri. March 15 08:30 Empire State Index Mar NA 10.0 Moderate Fri. March 15 10:00 Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM) Mar NA 77.6 Moderate

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors. As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you. Mortgage Success Source, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Success Source, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.

QE Chatter Continues and Economic News

In This Issue

Last Week in Review: More Fed chatter hit the wires about Quantitative Easing. Find out what happened. Forecast for the Week: The last week of February brings a full slate of economic news. View: Want your social media posts to be as effective as possible? Don't miss important information below.

Last Week in Review

"You don't know what you got until it's gone." Those lyrics from the band Chicago's 1980's hit could apply to the chatter from the Fed last week, as the debate about whether to continue their latest round of Bond buying, known as Quantitative Easing, continues. What is Quantitative Easing? Quantitative Easing is the concept of the Fed becoming a buyer of Treasuries and Bonds to try and stimulate the economy. Why does the Fed do Quantitative Easing? Oftentimes, the Fed does Quantitative Easing when they are hoping to (1) create inflation and avoid a deflationary economy, (2) lower the unemployment rate, and (3) boost Stock prices. For this latest round of Quantitative Easing, the Fed especially wanted to help stimulate the housing market and our economy overall. And the housing market has shown signs of improvement lately. While Housing Starts in January declined overall, single family Housing Starts rose to its highest rate since July 2008. Building Permits, a sign of future construction, also came in above expectations. These reports were the latest in a series of reports showing that the housing market is recovering. What is all the Fed chatter about? Last week, the minutes from the Fed's January meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee were released. The minutes noted that several Fed members would like to halt the Quantitative Easing program sooner than planned, because they are concerned about inflation. However, it's important to note that last week's Producer and Consumer Price Index Reports showed that inflation at both the wholesale and consumer levels remained tame in January. On the flip side, other Fed members are concerned that halting the program too soon could end the recovery in the housing market, and hinder our economic recovery overall. And given that the increase in the payroll tax in January left consumers with less money in their paychecks, and that Walmart has reported that February sales were the weakest in seven years, this is an important factor to consider as well. The biggest take away is that now remains a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance, as home loan rates remain near historic lows. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

Forecast for the Week

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Feb 22, 2013) A busy week of reports is ahead, with news on housing, manufacturing, consumer sentiment, U.S. growth and inflation. The week starts and ends with a measure of how the consumer is feeling with Tuesday's Consumer Confidence Report and Friday's Consumer Sentiment Index. There's a double dose of housing news on Tuesday, with the Case Shiller Index and New Home Sales. Plus, look for Pending Home Sales on Wednesday. We'll get a sense of how the economy is doing with Wednesday's Durable Goods Orders, which measures orders for products used for an extended period of time, and Thursday's Gross Domestic Product, the biggest picture of economic activity. Also on Thursday, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be reported. Ending the week, Friday brings Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed's favorite measure of inflation, along with Personal Income and Spending and the ISM Index. Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on. When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving -- and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse. To go one step further -- a red "candle" means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green "candle" means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning. As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates remain steady near record best levels. I'll continue to monitor them closely.

The Mortgage Market Guide View...

Best Days and Times for Posting to Social Media More than nine out of ten businesses spend six or more hours online each week maintaining a presence on social media. And while you probably already know the benefits of social media--better engagement with your market, better website traffic, improved sales--you might not realize that some days (and times!) are better than others for posting to social media. Social media analytics firm Socialbakers showed Facebook posts achieve 50% of their total reach within 30 minutes of being posted. In other words, half of all the people who will see your post have seen it within the first half-hour after you post it. Not only that, by the time 90 minutes have elapsed, your average post reaches less than 2% of total audience for the next seven hours before it drops off completely. That's why timing your posts properly is the best strategy. Here are the best days and times to post according to current research from Social Caffeine: Twitter BEST: 1 p.m. to 3 p.m., Monday through Thursday WORST: 8 p.m. to 9 a.m. Avoid after 3 p.m. Friday and weekends Facebook BEST: 1 p.m. to 4 p.m., peaking on Wednesdays at 3 p.m. WORST: 8 p.m. to 8 a.m., avoiding weekends LinkedIn BEST: 7 a.m. to 9 a.m. OR 5 p.m. to 6 p.m., Tuesday through Thursday WORST: 10 p.m. to 6 a.m., avoid Monday and Friday Pinterest BEST: 2 p.m. to 4 p.m. or 8 p.m. to 1 a.m., peaking on Saturday morning WORST: 5 p.m. to 7 p.m. and late afternoons Economic Calendar for the Week of February 25 - March 01 Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact Tue. February 26 09:00 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Dec 6.5% 5.5% Moderate Tue. February 26 10:00 New Home Sales Jan 385K 369K Moderate Tue. February 26 10:00 Consumer Confidence Feb 62.0 58.6 Moderate Wed. February 27 08:30 Durable Goods Orders Jan -4.0% 4.3% Moderate Wed. February 27 10:00 Pending Home Sales Jan 1.0% -4.3% Moderate Thu. February 28 09:45 Chicago PMI Feb 54.0 55.6 HIGH Thu. February 28 08:30 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q4 0.5% -0.1% Moderate Thu. February 28 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 2/23 360K 362K Moderate Fri. March 01 08:30 Personal Income Jan -2.3% 2.6% Moderate Fri. March 01 08:30 Personal Spending Jan 0.2% 0.2% Moderate Fri. March 01 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE Jan 0.2% 0.0% HIGH Fri. March 01 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE YOY NA 1.4% HIGH Fri. March 01 10:00 ISM Index Feb 52.4 53.1 HIGH Fri. March 01 10:00 Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM) Feb 76.3 76.3 Moderate

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