Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Here's How to Start the Holiday Season

Here's How to Start the Holiday Season
This time of year is all about reflection. Taking the time to consider the blessings in our lives - from family and friends to education and opportunity. But it's also a time to renew our spirits and souls, especially as we head into the holiday season and a new year. To help you make the upcoming holiday season feel a little less hectic and more reflective, consider dedicating specific times of the day or week to family activities that focus on the blessings of the season.
The website Kaboose.com can help. It offers a wide variety of word searches, crossword puzzles, mazes, coloring pages and more that you can download and print for free. Better still, those activities are available in different levels of toughness and subjects, so you can find the right activity for your family. Use the links below to start finding holiday activities that help you celebrate the meanings behind the holidays:
  • Chanukah - Download and Print Activities
  • Christmas - Download and Print Activities
  • Kwanzaa - Download and Print Activities
  • New Year's - Download and Print Coloring Pages
Here's to wishing you and yours the very best as we head into the beautiful holiday season. If you have any questions or if there's anything I can do for you or someone you know, please just call or email. I'm always happy to help in any way I can.

Monday, November 21, 2011

Weekly Update - Black Friday Tips

In This Issue


Last Week in Review: There was more negative news out of Europe and some
positive economic news here in the US. But how did home loan rates fare?
Forecast for the Week: There will be plenty of news to gobble up before the
Thanksgiving holiday, with reports on the housing market, the state of the
economy, inflation, consumer sentiment, and more.
View: Planning to do some shopping on Black Friday? Be sure to check out 
these tips first.
Last Week in Review


They say it takes two to tango.... And Stocks and Bonds continue to battle for 
investing dollars and trade in seesaw fashion. What's causing this dance in the
markets? Read on for details. 

First, there was more pessimistic news out of Europe last week, as German
leader Angela Merkel said that Europe is going through its toughest times
since World War II, plagued by political unrest and a severe debt crisis.
Reports showed there was a slowing in manufacturing to the point where 
recession fears have now gripped Europe. 

Here lies another enormous problem for Europe: One way--and probably the biggest
way--to lower government deficits, is to grow your way out and elevate Gross
Domestic Product (GDP). However, many of the Southern Europe economies are
on the brink of recession, which will make lowering the deficit through economic 
growth impossible. 

So what does all of this mean for home loan rates here in the United States? 

The problems in Europe should continue to support the US Dollar and US Bonds
(including Mortgage Bonds, on which home loan rates are based) to some degree, 
as investors will view our Bonds as a safe haven for their money. Yet, if we
continue to see better-than-expected economic data here like we did last week, 
this will offset the continued uncertainty surrounding the European crisis. And this 
is part of the reason that the Bond markets and home loan rates saw limited gains
last week. 

Some of the good news last week included tamer than expected wholesale inflation
in the form of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and improved New York Manufacturing.
Also, as you can see from the chart, the year-over-year headline Consumer Price
Index (CPI) was down from the previous reading, which is good news for people
concerned about inflation. However, the closely watched Core CPI rose by 0.1%, 
and though this was inline with estimates, it did push the year-over-year rate to 2.1%
from 2%...a touch above the Fed's comfort zone. 

The bottom line is that home loan rates are still near historic lows, which 
means now remains a great time to purchase or refinance a home. Let me 
know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.
Forecast for the Week


Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Nov 18, 2011)
Japanese Candlestick ChartThis Thursday, all capital markets will be closed in observance of Thanksgiving, and Friday will be a shortened session. But we'll still see a cornucopia of economic indicators reported in just three days:
  • Existing Home Sales will be released on Monday. The report comes after last week's positive reports on Housing Starts and Building Permits, which signaled a glimmer of hope to the battered housing sector.
  • The second read on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the 3rd Quarter will be delivered on Tuesday. The initial reading showed a somewhat healthy 2.5% increase. Also, look for the Durable Goods Report on Wednesday, which gives us a read on big-ticket items and a sense of how the economy is doing.
  • The Consumer Sentiment Index will be released on Wednesday just in time for traders to square up positions ahead of the long holiday weekend.
  • Also released on Wednesday will be the Fed's favorite gauge on inflation, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure, as well as Personal Incomes and Spending.
  • Finally, this week Initial Jobless Claims will be delivered on Wednesday rather than Thursday due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Claims have been below 400,000 for the previous three weeks, signaling that there may be a light at the end of the tunnel in the Labor markets.
In addition to those reports, the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes from November 2nd could have some surprises when released at 2 pm ET on Tuesday. Last week, the New York Fed leader William Dudley said that it would make sense for the Fed to begin purchasing Mortgage Backed Securities. The minutes could reveal if the members discussed the topic.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.
As you can see in the chart below, the problems in Europe tempered the impact that strong economic news in the US had on Bonds and home loan rates. This dynamic will be something to watch closely in the weeks ahead.
The Mortgage Market Guide View...



Black Friday Do's and Don'ts
These tips will help you get the best deals as you do your holiday shopping -- even if you don't plan on braving the stores the day after Thanksgiving.
By Cameron Huddleston, Kiplinger.com
Black Friday - the day after Thanksgiving that traditionally signals the beginning of the holiday shopping season because stores offer deep discounts that draw large, deal-hungry crowds - is just a couple of days away. Are you ready?
If you're a Black Friday pro who lines up outside stores every year before the crack of dawn to nab bargains, you're probably already planning your strategy - and we can help.
If you savor your sleep and sanity, you're probably not even thinking about stepping in a store November 25. But keep in mind that you don't have to brave the crowds to take advantage of Black Friday sales.
These Black Friday do's and don'ts will help you score the best deals - whether you want to shop from home in your pajamas or venture out to the stores (perhaps in something other than PJs).
DON'T rely solely on leaked ads to plan your Black Friday strategy. Plenty of Web sites specialize in publishing Black Friday ads before they appear on retailers' Web sites or in newspapers. You can use these leaked ads as a starting point for planning your purchases, but realize that you're reading gossip, says Dan de Grandpre, CEO of dealnews.com, one of our favorite deal sites. Inevitably, some of the information in leaked ads is wrong, he says. Most legitimate ads aren't published until the Sunday before Black Friday.
DO expect some Black Friday sales to start on Thursday. Many retailers will start offering discounts online on Thanksgiving day. And some, such as Amazon, will offer Black Friday deals several days before November 25 -- so hot items may sell out before the big shopping day after Thanksgiving.
DON'T assume the best deals are in the stores. It's a tradition for a lot of people to get up at the crack of dawn and camp out in front of stores to scoop up deals. But de Grandpre says a lot of doorbusters (those deeply discounted items retailers use to get consumers in the door early Friday) will be available online, too -- especially on big-ticket products. And if an Apple product is on your gift list, you'll probably find it for less online (at Amazon.com, MacMall.com or McConnection.com) than at an Apple store -- and you may escape sales tax on your purchase.
DO brave the crowds if you're trying to snag an extremely limited item . You have a better chance of getting the deal if you go to the store - and are first in line. Keep in mind, though, that items that are marked down dramatically are cheap items to begin with - not top-selling, name-brand products, de Grandpre says.
DON'T do all your holiday shopping on Black Friday. Consider the Friday after Thanksgiving as one of several days to find deals. The best deals on apparel usually appear on Cyber Monday (November 28 this year), when retailers discount items online. Toys will be cheaper the first two weeks of December when Walmart and Amazon go to war with each other to offer the lowest prices and clear out inventory before Christmas, de Grandpre says. And the best deals on name-brand TVs and luxury items can be found in early December, too.
DO check return policies. Some retailers tighten their policies around the holidays. Some charge restocking fees if you bring an item back. And some won't let you exchange items that were manufactured specifically for Black Friday (to be sold at a low price). So be sure to ask each store what its policy is, and hang on to your receipts.
DON'T spring for extended warranties on big-ticket items. There's a good chance that a salesperson will try to talk you into paying extra for an extended warranty if you purchase a big-ticket item on Black Friday. That's because revenue from extended warranties helps make up for lost profits on discounted items. Typically, you'll pay 10% to 20% more for an item to extend a one-year manufacturer's warranty through the fifth year of ownership. But most major appliances do not break down within the extended-warranty period. Plus, you might already be covered if you use your credit card to purchase an item (see What You Need to Know About Warranties).
AND FINALLY … DON'T wait until the week before Christmas to shop. Retailers often raise prices because supplies are limited and they know that last-minute shoppers will pay more to purchase all the items on their gift lists.
Reprinted with permission. All Contents ©2011 The Kiplinger Washington Editors. www.kiplinger.com.
Economic Calendar for the Week of November 21 - November 25
Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Mon. November 21
10:00
Existing Home Sales
Oct
4.85M

4.91M
Moderate
Tue. November 22
08:30
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Q3
2.5%

2.5%
Moderate
Tue. November 22
08:30
GDP Chain Deflator
Q3
2.5%

2.5%
Moderate
Tue. November 22
02:00
FOMC Minutes
11/2



HIGH
Wed. November 23
08:30
Durable Goods Orders
Oct
-1.0%

-0.6%
Moderate
Wed. November 23
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
Oct
NA

1.6%
HIGH
Wed. November 23
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
Oct
0.1%

0.1%
HIGH
Wed. November 23
08:30
Personal Income
Oct
0.3%

0.1%
Moderate
Wed. November 23
08:30
Personal Spending
Oct
0.3%

0.6%
Moderate
Wed. November 23
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
11/19
391K

388K
Moderate
Wed. November 23
10:00
Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)
Nov
64.2

64.2
Moderate

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

Mortgage Success Source, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Success Source, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.

Equal Housing Lender          

Monday, November 14, 2011

Weekly Update - All about the FLU

In This Issue

Last Week in Review: The Bond markets may have been closed Friday for
Veterans Day, but there was plenty of news before then to keep the volatility
churning.
Forecast for the Week: A slew of reports are ahead, with news on inflation,
manufacturing, retail sales and more.
View: The flu is nothing to sneeze at. Learn how you can stay up-to-date on 
outbreaks near you.
Last Week in Review

"Should I stay or should I go now?" The Clash. And last week,
Greece's Prime Minister George Papandreou announced his resignation,
a move seen as a way for new government to step in and implement the Euro 
rescue plan, thereby securing the financing necessary for Greece to avoid
default. But that's not the only news story making headlines last week. Read
on for the details...and what they could mean for home loan rates. 

The European crisis that has been lingering for 18 months continues to 
develop…and it's not over yet. Lucas Papademos was named as interim 
Prime Minister of Greece. During his eight years with Greece's Central Bank,
he helped the country achieve very strong economic growth rates. But 
let's not cue the sunset, happy music, and production credits just yet. 
Greece continues to be a very volatile situation, and continued uncertainty
could once again push investors back into the US Dollar and US 
Bonds...helping home loan rates in the process. 

In addition, as the soap opera in Greece continues, eyes have turned 
squarely towards Italy, whose Bonds yields have spiked on growing concern 
it is the next Greece. Italy is not in the same dire situation as Greece yet,
but their economy is far larger--the world's 7th largest, in fact--and a debt 
crisis in that region will be much more difficult to contain. To add to the Italian
uncertainty, Italy's Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi is under heavy pressure
to resign for a variety of scandalous reasons. 

Here at home, another story to watch came on the words from Fed Chairman
Ben Bernanke, who stated that the Fed has "considerable latitude" to
choose its long-term inflation goal. Although Bernanke didn't elaborate on 
specifics, the gist of his comment is that the Fed may tolerate higher inflation
for a period of time in an attempt to help the economy recover and improve
the employment sector. 

Remember, the Fed is charged with a dual mandate of (1) controlling inflation
as well as (2) supporting job creation. While inflation remains close to the 
Fed's target range, unemployment is nowhere near where the Fed would 
want to see it, which is between 5% and 6%. So it appears the Fed may make 
decisions in the future to improve employment, possibly at the slight expense
to inflation. 

This is important because inflation is the archenemy of Bonds and home loan 
rates. So any increase in inflation could negatively impact home loan rates. 

The bottom line is that now remains a great time to purchase or refinance 
a home, as home loan rates are still near historic lows. Let me know if I can
answer any questions at all for you or your clients.
Forecast for the Week

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Nov 11, 2011)
Japanese Candlestick ChartThe economic calendar was extremely light last week, but look out this week! The markets are set for a slew of reports that will give us a look at the economy across many sectors.
  • Manufacturing news from the Empire State Index (on Tuesday) and Industrial Production (on Wednesday) will be closely watched this week for any signs of a pickup.
  • After his comment last week, Fed Chairman Bernanke will be listening with both ears for any increase in inflation when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are released. Look for the PPI report to be released Tuesday, followed by the CPI report on Wednesday.
  • Also on Tuesday, we will see how the consumer is holding up when the Retail Sales report is released.
  • Rounding out the week, Initial Jobless Claims will be delivered on Thursday. Last week's report fell below the 400,000 level, which is a good sign but one week doesn't make a pattern.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.
As you can see in the chart below, the markets continue to be volatile, though home loan rates are still near historic lows. As always, I'll be monitoring this situation closely.
The Mortgage Market Guide View...


A Flu Outbreak Near You?
It's that time of year when we turn our attention to the winter season. While there are many things to look forward to such as the holidays, many of us--including you, your clients, or your friends--may also start to worry about the flu. And the cost of the season is nothing to sneeze at! Did you know that Americans spend approximately $4 Billion on over-the-counter cold and flu remedies? That's not even factoring in how much time and productivity is lost on sick-time in the workplace, or co-pays for doctor visits and prescriptions.
But now there's a way you can stay up-to-date on the latest flu information in your area.
The "Flu Near You" Website
The Children's Hospital Boston has partnered with the American Public Health Association and the Skoll Global Threats Fund to bring you the "Flu Near You" website.
On this site, any individual living in the United States who is 13 years of age or older can register to complete brief weekly surveys that may help all of us learn more about the flu. When a case is reported, the map registers a "pin" in the map-and you can even click on that pin to learn more about the symptoms or severity of the case!
Now You Can:
  • See flu activity in your area at the regional or state level
  • Explore flu trends around the world with Google Flu trends
  • Use the "Flu Vaccine Finder" to locate nearby locations offering flu shots or nasal spray flu vaccine
  • Receive customized email disease alerts at your location
  • Learn more about flu news, information, and resources at flu.gov
  • Check out local public health links
  • Browse the Disease Daily to discover summaries of important outbreaks and expanded coverage through the Outbreaks 101 news section
The site is completely free to use. And the information on the site will be available to public health officials, researchers, disaster planning organizations and anyone else who may find this information useful. So consider registering and using this site today
Want More Local Health Information?
In addition to the Flu Near You map, the Children's Hospital Boston also administers a Healthmap that features information about other health concerns or outbreaks in your community and around the world.
So if you're concerned about the upcoming flu season or other health concerns, take a few minutes to check out the Flu Near You map and the Healthmap.
You may even want to consider passing the information on to your friends, family members, or even your clients.
Economic Calendar for the Week of November 14 - November 18
Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Tue. November 15
08:30
Core Producer Price Index (PPI)
Oct
NA

0.2%
Moderate
Tue. November 15
08:30
Producer Price Index (PPI)
Oct
NA

0.8%
Moderate
Tue. November 15
08:30
Retail Sales
Oct
NA

1.1%
HIGH
Tue. November 15
08:30
Retail Sales ex-auto
Oct
NA

0.6%
HIGH
Tue. November 15
08:30
Empire State Index
Nov
NA

-8.48
HIGH
Wed. November 16
08:30
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Oct
NA

0.3%
HIGH
Wed. November 16
08:30
Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Oct
NA

0.1%
HIGH
Wed. November 16
09:15
Industrial Production
Oct
NA

0.2%
Moderate
Wed. November 16
09:15
Capacity Utilization
Oct
NA

77.4%
Moderate

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

In the unlikely event that you no longer wish to receive these valuable market updates, please USE THIS LINK or email: jeffporter.svm@gmail.com

If you prefer to send your removal request by mail the address is:

Jeff Porter
Sun Valley Mortgage Services, LLC
11576 South State St.
Unit 301
Draper, UT 84020
Mortgage Success Source, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Success Source, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.

Equal Housing Lender