Week in Review and Great Ways to say Thanks!

In This Issue

Last Week in Review: The markets were closed Monday but the rest of the week  had its share of good and bad news. Forecast for the Week: A plethora of economic reports will hit the wires,  with news on inflation, manufacturing, the state of the economy and more. View: “Thank you” may be two small words, but they carry a large significance.

Last Week in Review

Every cloud has a silver lining. That popular idiom is one way to look at the  headlines last week, both here in the U.S. and overseas. Read on for the details  and what they may mean for home loan rates.  There was good news on Friday as Consumer Sentiment rose to 75.3,  which is the best level since February of 2011. However, this news was  tempered by the rise in oil prices that we have been seeing.  There’s a good side and a bad side to higher oil prices.  On the one hand, high oil prices are very detrimental for the fragile U.S.  economy, as consumers have to put more of their discretionary dollars into their  gas tanks...meaning they have less to spend elsewhere. High oil prices are  also inflationary as the added shipping and material costs apply upward  price pressures on Producer or Wholesale goods that either have to be absorbed  by the producer, thus hurting profits and the ability to expand or hire. Or the  added costs get passed onto to the consumer...a la a rise in consumer inflation.  The silver lining is that high oil prices could actually be good news for home  loan rates, as the dampening effect on economic growth produces a sluggish  economic environment in which Bonds (including Mortgage Bonds, to which  home loan rates are tied) thrive. This is an important topic to continue watching  in the weeks and months ahead.  In silver linings overseas, after seemingly endless negotiations, Greece,  investors and central bankers came to an agreement to provide Greece with  130 Billion Euros ($172 Billion) in financial aid. This will help the country fund  itself through March and into the future... as long as it institutes economic  reform, austerity measures and meets deficit targets. Any deal with Greece will  be very tough to implement and a default could still occur...which makes this  another important topic to keep close watch on.  Between some of this uncertainty from overseas being lifted, a lower  unemployment rate, and better than expected economic reports, home loan  rates have struggled to improve beyond some of the best levels seen over  the past two weeks. But yet another silver lining is that home loan rates  remain near historic lows, and now continues to be a great time to purchase  or refinance a home. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you  or your clients.

Forecast for the Week

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Feb 24, 2012) After last week's holiday-shortened week, there will be plenty of economic reports to watch for. Pending Home Sales will be released on Monday and could have a relatively modest impact on trading. Durable Orders will be delivered on Tuesday. This report gives a look at consumer spending for products that are expected to last at least three years. Another important report will be Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, as the American consumer is a very important player in the U.S. economy. In the manufacturing sector, the Chicago PMI and the ISM Index will be released on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. The all-important Gross Domestic Product report comes on Wednesday and will give a detailed view on the overall picture of growth in the U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be released on Thursday, and last week's claims remained near four-year lows, signaling that the jobs market could be healing. Finally, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) report will be released on Thursday. This is the Fed's favorite gauge of inflation. Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on. When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving - and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse. To go one step further - a red "candle" means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green "candle" means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning. As you can see in the chart below, roller coaster trading in the markets continues. I'll continue to monitor this situation closely.

The Mortgage Market Guide View...

7 Ways to Say Thanks It's hard to go through the day without hearing the words "thank you" or "thanks." However, much of the time, people say those words quickly and without much meaning. Sure, a quick "thanks" is appropriate when someone holds a door for you or hands you something. But when it comes to saying thank you to a client, partner, or friend for a more significant gesture, it's important to go the extra mile. This is even more crucial in today's business environment when success is so dependent on personal connections. So how do demonstrate your appreciation? Here are 7 ways to say thank you…to strengthen your relationships…and to stand out in the mind of the person you're thanking. 1. Classic and Classy. Mailing thank you notes has dwindled in today's email business environment. That means you can really stand out and demonstrate your sincere appreciation by hand writing a brief thank you note and mailing it. Not sure what to write? No problem. Check out this simple advice for writing a thank you note. 2. A Little Surprise. Little surprises can be a fun way to thank a client, colleague, or friend. You may want to write a thank you note, but then slip it into a file that you hand the person. Or you could consider getting the person's jacket for them when they get ready to leave a meeting…and then slip the note into a pocket just before you hand it to him or her. 3. See You in the Papers. If you have a newsletter, social media page or blog, thank people publicly. A short "shout out" can go a long way. 4. Phone a Friend. There's something about hearing a person's voice…and it's even better when they call just to say thank you rather than to ask for something. 5. Face-to-Face. Dropping by to say thank you goes a long way to demonstrating your sincerity and to strengthening your relationships. 6. Time Is On Your Side. People seem busier than ever. That's why making time for someone means so much. One way to thank a person is simply to schedule some time for coffee or to chat. Then, turn off your cell phone and give him or her your undivided attention. 7. A Good Cause. Sometimes it's not appropriate to give money or a gift. That's ok. You may find that a unique and sincere gesture is to make a donation to a worthy cause that the person cares about. Then, let the person know about your donation as a way of saying thanks. Economic Calendar for the Week of February 27 - March 02 Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact Mon. February 27 10:00 Pending Home Sales Jan 1.0% -3.5% Moderate Tue. February 28 08:30 Durable Goods Orders Jan -1.4% 3.0% Moderate Tue. February 28 10:00 Consumer Confidence Feb 62.5 61.1 Moderate Wed. February 29 02:00 Beige Book Feb Moderate Wed. February 29 09:45 Chicago PMI Feb 60.0 60.2 HIGH Wed. February 29 08:30 GDP Chain Deflator Q4 0.4% 0.4% Moderate Wed. February 29 08:30 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q4 2.8% 2.8% Moderate Thu. March 01 08:30 Personal Spending Jan 0.3% 0.0% Moderate Thu. March 01 08:30 Personal Income Jan 0.4% 0.5% Moderate Thu. March 01 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE Jan 0.2% 0.2% HIGH Thu. March 01 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE YOY NA 1.8% HIGH Thu. March 01 10:00 ISM Index Feb 54.5 54.1 HIGH Thu. March 01 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 2/25 355K 351K Moderate

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