| | IN THIS ISSUE... |
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| | “Autumn is a second spring when every leaf is a flower.” - Albert Camus.Summer has come to an end, but that doesn’t mean that the economic news is cooling down. This month’s issue goes beyond the headlines of three hot and timely topics:
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| | Feelin` Hot...Hot...Hot! |
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| | The summer may be over, but some parts of the economy are just starting to heat up. One economic indicator that has come in hotter lately is inflation. At the end of September, the final reading of GDP in the 2nd Quarter showed inflation at 2.5%, which was up from the previous reading of 2.4%.  That elevated inflation reading was released on the heels of a hot Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which has risen steadily and jumped to the upper-end of the Fed’s comfort level in the latest release.Although Fed Chair Ben Bernanke stated a couple weeks ago that inflation has "moderated" of late and should continue to do so, there are still some reasons for concern. For example, we are experiencing an unprecedented amount of stimulus and low rates, which is something never seen before in history. So why is this significant? The concept is simple: If inflation rises, investors in Bonds demand a higher yield to offset the lost buying power inflation imposes on a fixed payment. And as home loan rates are tied to Mortgage Bonds, this would mean home loan rates move higher. Once inflation starts to emerge it can manifest rather quickly. Future inflation readings will be closely watched to see if a trend higher is emerging, and last month’s elevated number will certainly heat up the debate surrounding more stimulus, as more money into the system fuels inflation further. If inflation heats up even more, the Fed will likely back off their "low rates until mid-2013" mandate. Inflation really does change everything, so the markets will continue to follow this story closely. The bottom line is that home loan rates remain near historic lows, and now is still a great time to purchase or refinance a home. If I can answer any questions at all for you, call or email me anytime. | |
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| | Trick or Treat: Tips for a Safe and Happy Halloween |
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| |  Halloween falls on a Monday this year, and trick-or-treaters will be celebrating in full force. So now’s a good time to start planning for the big night. The following tips can help you make sure it’s a safe and happy celebration in your home and neighborhood. Your Home on Halloween During the evening of Halloween many of us will choose to not leave the comfort of our own abode. If this sounds like you, here are a few of our tips for having a happy Halloween while remaining at home. Keep It Clean:If your plan is to open your home to trick-or-treaters, there are several things you'll want to keep in mind. Prior to the big day, it is important to survey your front yard. Make sure it is clear of ladders, hoses, flowerpots, or any type of debris. This is highly important, as any loose objects are a potential hazard for children passing through. Keep It Lit:It is equally important to make sure that the front of your home is properly lit. For starters, a lighted front yard and walkway lets people know that you are welcoming trick-or-treaters. It also helps to prevent any trip and fall mishaps. Keep It Safe:Jack-o'-lanters are a very common piece of Halloween décor. For safety reasons, it is recommended that you use battery-powered candles as opposed to a real flame. If you decide to use regular candles, make sure to place your jack-o'-lantern(s) away from any walkways and clear of any yard decorations made from cloth. Don't Forget the Dogs:If you are a dog owner, you will want to take the appropriate steps with your pet as well. In general, dogs are not big fans of Halloween due to the outdoor noise and constant doorbell ringing. You know your pet better than anyone. If there is any chance of your dog becoming overly agitated, you'll need to find a way to isolate and secure him or her. It's All In the Treat:The options are many with various types of candy topping off the list. Some people are opposed to handing out candy and go the opposite route with healthy snacks like packages of raisins or nuts. While we applaud anyone who takes this high road, we also would like to remind you that healthy snacks might not be received so well. After all it is Halloween. If taking the healthier route, we suggest you split the difference. Treats like yogurt covered raisins, caramel covered popcorn, and chocolate covered peanuts offer the sweet satisfaction of candy but do it with less sugar. Many of these treats now come in individual packages, perfect for Halloween. Another option is to not hand out food at all. Instead, offer packages of stickers, pencils, small plastic toys, action cards, or even coins. Don't Overbuy:Another concern regarding treats is how much to buy. The only thing worse than running out of candy is having mass amounts left over the next day. If you don't believe us, pop into your company break room Tuesday morning, November 1st. It's our guess you'll see the offerings of co-workers who purchased far too many bags of chocolate bars and suckers. If you are new to your neighborhood, ask your neighbors about the foot traffic on your street prior to buying candy. Otherwise, take an educated guess, making sure to err on the side of "less is more." Hand out one candy to each child. If you still have a lot of candy by 8:00 pm, start giving 2 pieces to each child. Leftover candy only sounds like a good idea. On the Road This Halloween If you have kids, you'll most likely spend a portion of your Halloween away from your home, escorting them on a trick-or-treating venture through the neighborhood. Here are a few suggestions for making it a positive experience for everyone. Dinner Before Dessert:To begin with, it behooves both you and your children to eat dinner prior to any trick-or-treating. It gives everyone involved the energy they need for a night of fun. Putting it off until later means trying to get your kids to eat healthy food while staring at their pile of candy. Good luck. Travel In Packs:Trick or treating in large groups is fun for kids and parents. Prior to Halloween, talk to the parents of some of your children's friends, and see if they're up for joining you. Your children will enjoy sharing the holiday with their friends, and you'll enjoy conversing with other adults. Safety First:If purchasing your child's costume, look for one that's made from fire retardant material. Avoid any ill-fitting costumes, as they pose a potential hazard to your child's safety. No part of the costume should drag on the ground and shoes should fit perfectly. Stay away from masks that completely cover the head or face, as they have a tendency to obstruct your child's vision. We also advise that you limit any props that accompany a costume, especially those resembling weapons. All parents should carry a cell phone and a flashlight, and wear a watch that can be read in the dark. Depending on the age or the number of children you're supervising, you may also want to consider carrying a shoulder pack with a few appropriate supplies. Prior to embarking, make sure your kids understand the rules of the road: (1) Stay with the pack and no running ahead. (2) Walk on the left hand side of the street in order to see oncoming traffic . (3) Obey all traffic signs and stop lights. (4) Stay away from any strange animals. Respect Your Neighbors:Halloween is a great opportunity for you to teach your children how to have fun while remaining respectful to others. Start by keeping away from any homes that are not lit up. Also, stay on walkways and sidewalks, as opposed to walking on lawns or through flowerbeds. Control the Candy:Upon returning home, make sure to inspect every piece of your child's candy. While tampering is a somewhat rare occurrence, throw away any candy that looks at all suspicious. We also recommend that you take control of the candy as opposed to handing it over to your child. Put each child's treats in a separate container and dole them out at your discretion. If they complain, tell them that pacing their candy consumption is a great way to prolong the fun of Halloween. Good Luck…and Happy Halloween! | |
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| | Q&A: Retirement? |
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| | QUESTION:What do I need to know about my retirement? ANSWER: Social Security has been in the news recently, especially with politicians trying to decide what needs to be done to make Social Security more stable. The chart below gives a revealing look at the well-documented challenges Social Security has in order to be funded into the future. The number of workers per beneficiary has been declining since 1945 when there were 42 workers per beneficiary. Today, the number is just above 3 and is predicted to hit 1 by 2032. If you have any questions about the trend in home prices and what it means to the housing and mortgage industries, simply call or email today. I'll be happy to sit down with you and discuss the factors that impact home affordability and your unique situation.  | |
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