Jobs Report Surprise and How to Save on Back-to-School Electronics

In This Issue

Last Week in Review: It was a volatile week in the markets. Find out what happened  to home loan rates. Forecast for the Week: This week's calendar is jam-packed, with news on inflation,  manufacturing, retail sales, and more. View: Have any clients or colleagues doing back-to-school shopping? Or in the  market for electronics yourself? Read (and pass on) the great tips below.

Last Week in Review

"Where do we go from here?" - Alicia Keys. And after a volatile week in the  markets, you may be wondering where Bonds and home loan rates go from here.  Read on for details. There were only  two economic  reports released  last week, and the  news from them  was mixed.  Productivity rose  1.6% in the 2nd  quarter of 2012.  Higher productivity  signals that  companies are  squeezing more out  of their current  employees and  may not add  workers, which could slow job growth. There was a bit of good news on the labor front,  though, as Initial Jobless Claims came in below expectations, declining to 361,000.  Also of note, the Fed's Eric Rosengren stated that the current U.S. economic outlook  calls for another round of Bond buying (known as Quantitative Easing, or QE3).  Remember that once an official announcement about QE3 is made, Bonds and home  loan rates could suffer as Stocks would likely rally.  So where do Bonds and home loan rates go from here? While Bonds and home  loan rates worsened last week due to some optimism out of Europe and a better than  expected Jobs Report for July, there are many reasons why Bonds and home loan  rates should have better weeks ahead. There is evidence of a weakening  economy here in the U.S. For example, the expectations component of the University  of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report came in at 65.6 in July, the lowest reading of  2012.  In addition, the ongoing problems in Europe and the upcoming election this fall  will bring uncertainty...and Bonds (and therefore home loan rates, which are tied to  Mortgage Bonds) typically benefit from uncertainty, as investors see Bonds as a safe  haven for their money. Technical trading levels will also be an important factor to  watch closely in determining what happens next with Stocks, Bonds, and home loan rates.  The bottom line is that now is a great time to consider a home purchase or  refinance, as home loan rates remain near historic lows. Let me know if I can  answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

Forecast for the Week

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Aug 10, 2012) The markets will have a lot to chew on this week, especially given the packed economic calendar. On Tuesday, we will be able to gauge how the consumer is holding up when Retail Sales are released. On the inflation front, the Producer Price Index (or wholesale inflation) will also be delivered on Tuesday, while the Consumer Price Index will be released on Wednesday. Over in the manufacturing sector, the Empire State Index will be reported on Wednesday with the Philly Fed Index set to be released on Thursday. Housing Starts and Building Permits will be closely watched when the data is reported on Thursday. Also on Thursday, we'll get another read on weekly Initial Jobless Claims. Last but not least, Consumer Sentiment will be reported on Friday. In addition, Stock movements will be watched closely. If Stocks continue to rise, it could keep pushing the Bond markets lower--and, in turn, push home loan rates higher. Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on. When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving — and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse. To go one step further — a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning. As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates continued to move from their record levels, but still remain near historic bests. I’ll continue to monitor their movement closely.

The Mortgage Market Guide View...

How to Save on Back-to-School Electronics Follow these six tips to cut costs on computers, phones and other devices for students. By Cameron Huddleston, Kiplinger.com Among the most-expensive items on many families' back-to-school shopping lists are electronics, such as computers, tablets, MP3 players and smart phones. According to a National Retail Federation survey, families are expected to spend about $218, on average, on these items during the back-to-school shopping season this year. That might cover the cost of smaller items, such as phones, but families will have to shell out more if they want to buy laptop computers or certain tablets. However, there are ways to keep the cost of electronics under control. Jon Rettinger, president of gadget review site TechnoBuffalo, offers these tips: Shop online. Shopping online makes it easy to compare prices from several retailers. And there are plenty of sites that do the bargain hunting for you by scouring the Web for the best deals. Our favorite deal site, dealnews.com, has a page devoted to the best computer deals. Other sites that feature deals on computers and other tech items include MacMall.com (Apple products), Offers.com, Shopping.com and Shopzilla.com. Monitor daily deals. You can find deeply discounted computers and other items on daily deal sites that specialize in tech products, such as RedTag.com and Woot.com. These sites feature just one product a day, but both offer e-mail alerts so that you don't have to monitor the sites each day. Set up price alerts. If you want to buy a particular tech product (not just the lowest-price computer, for example), sign up for price alerts so that you can receive an e-mail when the price on that product changes. There are a number of price alert sites that track electronics, such as Gazaro, PriceSpider and PricePinx. Buy refurbished. You can save a lot by purchasing refurbished tech items, which are used but restored to like-new condition and usually have a one-year warranty. Among the sites where your can find refurbished computers, tablets and other products are Apple.com, BestBuy.com, CompUSA.com, Dell.com, Newegg.com and Walmart.com. Take advantage of trade-in programs. One way to pay less for a new tech item is to trade in a used item. A number of retailers, including Best Buy, Circuit City and Radio Shack, have trade-in programs that offer cash, a gift card or credit for the value of a used item that can be applied toward the purchase of a new item. Avoid extras. Just say no to tech support and retailers' extended warranties, Rettinger says. Your credit card might offer an extended warranty (see How Credit Cards' Extended Warranty Coverage Stacks Up). Or Rettinger suggests buying extended warranty coverage through SquareTrade.com, which offers warranties 40% to 60% cheaper than retailers' warranties. Another extra that he says to avoid is Microsoft Office Home & Student edition ($120) because you can use Google Docs for free. Reprinted with permission. All Contents ©2012 The Kiplinger Washington Editors. Kiplinger.com. Economic Calendar for the Week of August 13 - August 17 Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact Tue. August 14 08:30 Retail Sales Jul NA -0.5% HIGH Tue. August 14 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Jul NA -0.4% HIGH Tue. August 14 08:30 Producer Price Index (PPI) Jul NA 0.1% Moderate Tue. August 14 08:30 Core Producer Price Index (PPI) Jul NA 0.2% Moderate Wed. August 15 08:30 Empire State Index Aug NA 7.4 Moderate Wed. August 15 08:30 Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) Jul NA 0.2% HIGH Wed. August 15 08:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) Jul NA 0.0% HIGH Thu. August 16 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 8/11 NA NA Moderate Thu. August 16 08:30 Housing Starts Jul NA 760K Moderate Thu. August 16 08:30 Building Permits Jul NA 755K Moderate Thu. August 16 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Index Aug NA -12.9 HIGH Fri. August 17 10:00 Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM) Aug NA 72.3 Moderate

The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors. As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you. Mortgage Success Source, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Success Source, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.